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February 15, 2006
Happy Talk
The "dismal science" of economics typically focuses on "bad" news. The national media's spin on the economy is so negative that 43% of Americans thought the U.S. economy was in recession as recently as last fall, even as solid growth and strong job gains continued. However, there are many favorable developments taking place within the U.S. economy. This is our semi-annual update of "Happy Talk." This Tea Leaf focuses ONLY on the "good" news…
- For every dollar of U.S. economic output generated today, we burn less than half as much oil as 30 years ago
- U.S. economic growth has been rock-solid. The economy grew at an inflation-adjusted annual rate of at least 3.0% for the ten consecutive quarters ending on September 30, 2005, the longest such streak since the mid-1980s. Even as reported growth slowed in 2005's fourth quarter, the consensus view for real growth in 2006 is near 3.3%
- The average American home appreciated 12.0% during the 12 months ended September 30, 2005…and 55.3% over the past five years
- Even as China and India rise in economic prominence, the U.S. share of global output is higher today (30.7%) than in 1971 (30.5%)
- Violent crime overall is down 55% since 1993, with violence by teens down 71%. School violence has declined by half from a decade ago
- Donations to U.S. charities set an all-time high in 2004, with a total of $248.5 billion donated by individuals, foundations, and corporations. Individuals donated roughly $188 billion in 2004 alone
- Today's U.S. jobless rate of 4.7% is lower than the averages during the 70's, the 80's, and the 90's. The U.S. economy added more than four million net new jobs during the past two years
- Today's moms and dads, whether working or at home, are spending four to six hours more per week with their kids than did the previous generation
- The U.S. still accounts for roughly 40% of global research and development (R&D) spending
- Educational achievement gaps between white students and Black & Hispanic students recently fell to the lowest levels ever, with all rising
- American household net worth on September 30, 2005 reached $51.1 trillion, the highest ever, and nearly three times the total of 18 years ago. Net worth—the difference between assets and liabilities—has risen for 12 consecutive quarters. Higher home and stock prices led the way
- The year 2004 was the safest ever for U.S. and global airline passengers. U.S. civil aviation accidents fell by 18% in 2004, with 9% fewer deaths
- Cancer survival rates reached an all-time high in 2003, with nearly two of three patients now living at least five years after being diagnosed with the disease. Total cancer deaths declined in 2003 (latest data available), the first such decline in more than 70 years
- Solid economic growth and tax cuts of recent years led to a 14.5% rise in tax receipts (up $274 billion) last year, the largest jump in 24 years
- Women's average household work time fell by nearly half between 1965 and 1995, to 17.5 hours weekly from 30 hours. Men's average household work time doubled to 10 hours a week
- The upward "mobility" of the typical American remains the greatest in the world. Why? The U.S. economy "rewards" the combination of hard work and educational achievement more than ever before…and more than any other country in the world
- Alcohol-related traffic fatalities in the most recently reported year dropped by more than half versus 20 years ago
- Women earned 57% of all bachelor's degrees awarded in 2003, versus 43% in 1970 and 24% in 1950. Within five years, the number of women in undergraduate and graduate programs is expected to exceed that of men by one-third
- Average U.S. life expectancy has reached 77.6 years, the highest ever. This compares to 68 years in 1950 and 47 years in 1900
- The share of American children with no health insurance has fallen to 10.1%, an all-time low. Why? More kids defined as "near poor" or "poor" are covered by government insurance
- America contains 22 of the world's top 30 universities
- Air pollution declined 25% over the past 30 years even as the population and the economy grew. Water quality also continues to improve
- The U.S. rate of home ownership reached 69% of households in recent quarters, the highest ever
- Flexible work schedules are now the norm for 43% of workers, up from 29% in 1992 and 13% in 1985. This allows greater flexibility for more people, especially those with children
- The share of women who smoke recently fell below 20% for the first time in 30 years. The number of people who have quit smoking (46 million) now exceeds the number who still smoke (45 million)
- The number of abortions performed in this country has declined by one-third since 1990 and is now at a record low
- Median (half more, half less) family income now exceeds $54,000 annually
- The number of women in medical schools now equals that of men
- In 1967, only one family in 25 earned $100,000 or more (inflation adjusted, or real, to 2005). Today, one in six families do. The share of families earning more than $75,000 annually in real dollars has tripled from 9% to 27%, while the share of families earning between $5,000 and $50,000 in real dollars has fallen by 19% since 1967
- Overall illicit drug use among youths 12 to 17 has declined 19% since 2001
- Immunization of American infants and toddlers reached an all-time high in 2003, with nearly 80% of children vaccinated against nine diseases before their third birthdays
- Women now make up 15.7% of the top-ranking executives at America's largest companies, versus 12.5% in 2000 and 8.7% in 1995
- Mortgage interest rates have been at or near 40-year lows for four years, allowing hundreds of thousands of consumers to buy or refinance homes at extremely attractive rates
- Seat belt usage by Americans was a record 82% last year, versus 49% in 1990 and 14% in 1983
- A record 29% of men have earned a bachelor's degree or higher, versus 26% of women, also a record. This compares to a combined 7.7% in 1960. A record 84.6% of adults over age 25 now have at least a high school diploma, versus 24.5% in 1940
- U.S. teen pregnancy and birth rates have plummeted to all-time lows. The reasons? More widespread use of birth control, more work opportunities, and more girls who "just say no"
- Divorce rates…after doubling between 1960 and 1990…stabilized during the 1990s and declined in recent years
- Children's deaths from unintentional injury have dropped by almost 40% since 1987. Bicycle deaths fell 60%, while firearms-related deaths fell 72%
- Roughly 30% of trash was recycled or composted in the latest year, versus 16% in 1990
- Productivity of the average American worker rose an average of 3.5% annually during each of the past four years, the largest gains in 51 years. Rising productivity is a long-term key to higher standards of living
- Since the mid-1990s, smoking has dropped 56% among eighth-graders and 37% among high school seniors
- During the five-year period 1997-2002, business start-ups by women were twice the rate of all start-ups, reaching 6.5 million businesses. Black-owned businesses rose by 45%, while Hispanic-owned businesses grew 31%
- The U.S. role of dominance in the global economy in recent years has been as clear-cut as at any time since the 1950s
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