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Summer View The extended American recession, now into its 18th month, will be the longest and deepest of any since the Great Depression. A return to positive (if modest) U.S. economic growth during the July to September quarter is the consensus view of forecasting economists. Modest growth should be followed by more robust performance during 2009’s final quarter and more solid growth throughout 2010. June 10, 2009 Painful…But Better Six months of horrific job losses gave way to a “still terrible but at least moving in the right direction” employment report for the month of May. The reported 345,000 job decline was sharply below the consensus forecast of a loss near 520,000 jobs. It was also the lowest number of reported monthly job losses in the past eight months. June 3, 2009 Tugs of War Long-term interest rates and oil prices have been embroiled in frantic tugs of war in recent weeks, as rising expectations of economic stabilization and an impending return to modest U.S. economic growth have pushed such rates and prices higher. Even higher long-term interest rates and higher oil prices could slow the economy and make the expected economic rebound even less dynamic than currently expected. May 27, 2009 NAP Time Severe U.S. recession has sharply reduced the flow of funds to Social Security and Medicare, tied to declining payroll taxes resulting from the loss of 5.7 million jobs during the past 18 months. According to the Social Security and Medicare Trustees in a report issued on May 12, 2009, Social Security is now expected to stop running modest surpluses in seven years, one year earlier than previously estimated. May 20, 2009 Domestic ABCs This week’s Tea Leaf is our semi-annual alphabetic view of the U.S. economy. Global ABCs will follow, presumably in two weeks… May 13, 2009 Ugly…Less Ugly Make no mistake about it… …the loss of 539,000 net jobs in April was terrible However, when compared to even greater job losses in prior months, April’s decline—the smallest since last October—was one more minuscule sign of impending life in the American economy.May 6, 2009 Similar Numbers…Different Stories The American economy contracted at a 6.1% real (after inflation) annual rate during 2009’s first quarter, very close to the 6.3% real annual rate of decline during the prior quarter… …that’s where the similarity ends For those who missed it, the April 27 cover story of Business Week was entitled “What Good Are Economists Anyway?” |
